Independent strategy validation
Is your trading edge real — or just luck?
Upload your trades and get an honest score in 60 seconds. Wembro is your independent second opinion — the credit score for your trading edge. We stress-test your record against thousands of pure-luck versions of itself. No signals, no predictions — just whether your results could be luck.
Probably luck. These results sit right in the crowd of pure chance.
This edge held up. The results were unlikely to be luck across 412 trades.
Yes — Wembro will tell you when it's luck. It has no reason to flatter you.
The problem
Can you spot the skill?
One of these traders has a real edge. The other is pure coin flips. Take your best guess.
Can you spot the skill?
Two traders. Both records climb. One has a genuine edge — the other is pure coin-flips that happened to land up. Which one is real?
Which one has a real edge? Make your call above.
The problem
Why your win rate is lying to you.
Both traders below win 55% of the time. Drag the win and loss sizes — and watch one build wealth while the other goes broke.
Why your win rate is lying to you.
These two traders won the exact same trades — a 55% win rate, the same wins and losses in the same order. The only difference is how big their wins and losses were. Drag the sliders and watch what a “good win rate” really hides.
A 90% win rate with +$5 wins and −$50 losses loses money every trade. A win is a yes/no — it hides how much.
What Wembro does
Meet your report.
Paste your trades. Wembro runs them against the Coin-Flip Crowd, checks the sample is big enough, catches over-tuning, and gives one honest verdict. Move the dials to feel what changes it.
Meet your report
With 34 trades, a 58% win rate, and a 1.4 payoff, the evidence leans toward a real edge.
Paste your trades — Wembro runs them against the Coin-Flip Crowd, checks the sample is big enough, catches over-tuning, and gives one honest verdict.
The evidence
Why you can trust the verdict.
Meet the skeptic — a sharp trader who thinks this is nonsense. They get to raise every objection. Watch Wembro answer each one.
The Luck Test
Could luck alone have done this?
We made 1,000 coin-flip versions of these exact trades — each trade's win or loss flipped at random — and raced them against the real record. If the real curve pulls clear of the crowd, the edge was real. If it gets lost in the pack, it was probably luck.
The Coin-Flip Crowd
the real record40 luck shufflesOut of 1,000 coin-flip versions of these trades, luck beat them only 11% of the time.
Your edge beats 89% of luck (sign-flipped shuffles of your own trades).
What this assumes: it treats your trades as independent. It tests whether luck explains your record — not whether next year will look the same.
Is your track record long enough?
Here is one real edge — a steady +0.25% per trade, the same edge no matter what. The only thing that changes is how many trades you’ve logged. Drag the slider and watch the same edge go from “could be luck” to standing clear of it.
You’d need about 5,658 trades before a real edge this size reads as convincing. You have 30 of 5,658.
What this assumes — a steady, unchanging edge across all your trades. Markets drift — a record that looks convincing today is evidence about the past, never a promise about the future.
The Search Tax
Did you just try a thousand versions?
Here are pure coin-flip strategies — every one built from ~150 random trades with zero edge, a true mean of nothing. Drag the slider to try more of them, and watch the luckiest one start to look like a winner. None of them are.
1 pure-luck strategies, by Sharpe
no edgethe luckiestThe best of 1 pure-luck strategy scored a Sharpe of -0.0 — right where no edge belongs. Now drag the slider.
That is the luckiest Sharpe a blind search turned up after testing 1 version — manufactured entirely by trying enough times. The more you tried, the taller the tallest fluke stood.
So Wembro doesn't compare your result to zero. It raises the bar to beat the luckiest of everything you tried — every variant, every tweak, every re-run. Clear that bar, and it was probably real.
What this assumes — you tell the truth about how many ideas you tried. Wembro can only raise the bar for the searching it knows about — tweaks you don't disclose still quietly inflate luck.
Risk of Ruin
Could it still blow up your account?
A real edge is not a seatbelt. We took one edge and ran it 150 times over 250 trades each. Every path risked a slice of its own balance per trade and compounded. The moment a path lost 50% of where it started, we called it a blown account and stopped it. Then we counted how many futures ended in ruin.
150 futures, one edge
survivedblew upof these futures blew up the account. 0 of 150 crossed the ruin line.
Same edge. Only the bet size changed. Drag the risk dial from 1% to 5% and watch the red ruin-paths explode while win rate and payoff sit still. Ruin was about you, not the strategy.
What this assumes — your future trades resemble your past ones in win rate and payoff. It sizes the danger from your record — it can't see a market that suddenly changes character.
No black box
How the score is built.
Every check you just saw becomes points — added or subtracted, each one named — that sum to a single number from 0 to 100. Toggle between a real edge and a lucky one to see it.
This edge held up. Across 412 trades it was unlikely to be luck.
Every point is added or taken away by a named factor — start at zero, end on the score. No black box. The same decomposition runs on your own trades.
Radical honesty
We'll tell you the truth.
It reads only the trades you paste. It can't catch survivorship bias, look-ahead leakage, or bad data in your history — and it never predicts the future. Every number describes the record you gave it, not the trades you haven't made yet.
Everyone else in trading profits by telling you good news — prop firms, gurus, brokers. Wembro sells nothing but the honest number. That's exactly why a low score from us means something. The math traces to named, peer-reviewed work (Sharpe; Bailey & López de Prado) — and you can re-run it.
Find out if your edge is real — in 60 seconds.
Free, no signup. We'll tell you if it's real evidence — or if you've just been lucky.
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